Solve this simple math question.

Statistics and disease risks are invented for this exercise!

1% of people will have Hubbub Disease by age 70. Up to 80% of people with Disease will get positive HEBOT mutation tests.  9.6% of people without Hubbub Disease will also get positive HEBOT mutation tests.  A patient had a positive HEBOT mutation test in genomic screening.  What is the probability that patient will have Hubbub Disease by age 70?

The correct answer is about 68.1%. If you got this, good job, you’re qualified, click here.

If you got a different answer or need an explanation, click here.

note: updated to be even more nonsensical to avoid confusion. Thanks, neandrothal.

Josh: For those interested, I wrote a paper for a class 2 years ago applying Bayes Theorum to medicine. It’s moderately related to the post.